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Simons Trading Research

Author: simonsg   |   Latest post: Fri, 21 Feb 2020, 10:30 PM

 

Ascendas REIT - Growth From a Broader Base

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AREIT 4Q19 in Line W/MKE, Consensus; Sector Top Pick

  • Ascendas REIT (SGX:A17U)’s DPU increased 1.2% y-o-y in 4Q19, while headline DPU of SGD4.14cts rose 6.1% y-o-y from a capital distribution.
  • DPU growth was driven by contributions from its Australian and UK acquisitions, and better Singapore occupancies with the completed 20 Tuas Ave redevelopment.
  • Our DPUs are slightly changed (-1%) and our DDM-based Target Price increases 3% to SGD3.20 as we roll forward to FY20 (COE: 7.1%, LTG: 2.0%).
  • We see risk of near-term profit taking given the strong Ascendas REIT share price performance but we remain positive longer-term with the shares offering a total return of 12% in FY20E (DPU 5.5% and Target Price upside 6%).

Singapore Recovery Underway, AEI Picks Up

  • Ascendas REIT's portfolio occupancy improved q-o-q from 91.3% to 91.9% on stronger Singapore occupancies (up from 87.3% to 88.3%).
  • Ascendas REIT reported a +6.6% rental reversion for leases in its multi-tenanted buildings renewed during 4Q19 and +3.7% for FY19, up from +0.5% in FY18. Positive reversions were achieved across all segments, led by its business and science parks (+4.8%), logistics and distribution centres (+9.7%), and integrated development, amenities and retail (+8.5%).
  • Ascendas REIT will initiate SGD56.5m in redevelopment and AEI works between FY20-22 across five assets.

Overseas Diversification Gains Traction

  • Its overseas assets, with their long WALEs (Australia: 4.5 years, UK: 9.3 years) were 17.9% of NPI, and set to grow. We see positive reversions in Australia, supported by strong demand fundamentals; 8.0% of its gross rental income is due for renewal in FY20 with 74% from its assets in Sydney.
  • In Singapore, management is guiding for reversions to be flat in FY20 from high supply, against our expectation of a steady recovery.

Fundamentally the Best Sector Pick

  • Ascendas REIT’s fundamentals are well supported by its scale, concentrated Singapore business parks/high-specs portfolio, and DPU upside from its overseas diversification.
  • We remain positive on S-REITs (see report: Singapore REITs - Maybank Kim Eng 2019-04-03: Patience Rewarded) as we expect rates to stay lower for longer against the current rate hike cycle; Ascendas REIT is best placed as the sector’s largest, most liquid proxy.

Source: Maybank Kim Eng Research - 30 Apr 2019

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Chart Stock Name Last Change Volume 
Ascendas Reit 3.29 -0.01 (0.30%) 13,023 

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